Trend Test

For a random variable xi, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., N, count the number of times that xi > xj for i < j.  Each such inequality is called a reverse arrangement.  The total number of reverse arrangement is denoted by A.

 

For example, consider the following sequence of N = 8 observations;

x1 = 5,   x2 = 3,   x3 = 8,   x4  = 9,   x5 = 4,   x6 = 1,   x7 = 7,   x8 = 5

x1 > x2, x1 > x5, and x1 > x6 which gives A1 = 3

x2 > x6 which gives A2 = 1

Continuing on, A3 = 4, A4 = 4, A5 = 1, A6 = 0, A7 = 1

 

The total number of reverse arrangement is, therefore,

A = A1 + A2 + ... + A7 = 3 + 1 + 4 + 4 + 1 + 0 + 1 = 14

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Hypothesis:

The observations are independent observations of a random variable x(k) where there in no trend.

 

Acceptance region:

 

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